The forklift truck is indispensable in many warehouses, as there is no real alternative to moving pallets long distances and putting them away high.
Although the availability of people to drive the forklift is becoming scarcer and automation and the development of robots are not standing still, experts predict that the forklift will also remain indispensable for the time being, although the machine is becoming smarter and more durable, and software is helping to use the forklift more efficiently.
It is 2040. In the warehouse, automated guided vehicle systems (agv's) drive back and forth. Robots climb racks to grab the right item and place it in a box, which then goes to the packing department via a special conveyor belt. There, robots are ready to pack the products and make sure they go to the customer by drone.
It is a scenario that could become a reality. Various studies show that automation and robotisation will accelerate in the next few years: technical developments follow each other in rapid succession. On top of this, staff will become a scarce resource.
In the lift
What will be the role of the most widely used and best known internal transport device, the forklift, in the warehouse of the future? Both Geurt de Groot, director of internal transport supplier MotracLinde, and professor of logistics and operations management René de Koster of Erasmus University expect that in the future the number of forklifts in a warehouse will go down, but they will certainly not become redundant. "I am busy working on a vision of what the material handling market will look like in five years," says De Groot. After the crisis, sales of electric-powered forklifts in particular are on a huge rise.
Demand has increased not only at MotracLinde, but also at other suppliers such as Still, Toyota and Jungheinrich. Companies are investing again, but for how long is the question. E-commerce will continue to grow solidly in the coming years and this will also affect logistics, says De Groot. "Logistics is a derivative of the economy. A generation is arriving that thinks more in terms of use than possession. The carbon footprint is also becoming increasingly important, because that is what consumers are asking for. They want to receive their goods as sustainably as possible."
Looking at the forklift, he already sees a turnaround. "The number of conventional diesel and LPG forklifts we sell is falling and that is continuing, I expect. I don't see a rebound coming there anymore." However, he does not expect a drop to zero altogether. "In port areas or other large outdoor areas where charging points are not readily available, such trucks will remain much needed. In addition, I see the trend of combustion trucks currently driving around warehouses being replaced by electric ones. This trend will continue in the coming years." The traditional order-picking truck will find it more difficult, De Groot thinks. "I don't see those growing in numbers so fast, but more heavier machines will take over that work."
Manpower
According to De Groot, the changes in the warehouse are due to the changing economy. "The 24-hour economy requires 24-hour logistics. People order a book in the evening and prefer to pick it up or have it delivered somewhere the next morning. To get that done, you need a lot of manpower, because the shop floor has to be manned not eight hours a day, but 24 hours. However, employees are scarce, so to meet that consumer desire, you get a trend towards automation and robotisation." That trend also impacts his own organisation. "We are becoming more and more of a service provider. We have to move with the customer's issues." Those who think that only large companies are engaged in automation are wrong, he says. "Research shows that four in 10 SMEs are working on changing the logistics process. Especially in retail, it's hook or lose."
To work more efficiently, fleet management for the forklift is increasingly important. This involves software measuring the forklift's performance and determining how the truck can be used most efficiently. "Planning on the back of a cigar box really doesn't work anymore. Even in a warehouse with six forklift trucks, that kind of software is already very useful. With it, a business owner can use his staff more efficiently and might find out that there are too many forklifts driving around for the work at hand."
In the most modern warehouses, automation does reduce the number of forklifts used. "We recently had a project where a warehouse with 135 trucks was fully automated so that only 30 trucks are now needed. Those kinds of projects require huge investments that now only large companies can afford, but it does show a trend."
Flexible solution
Yet smaller companies are also making smarter use of equipment, notes De Groot. "We do see a change in demand. The concept of pay-per-use, where buyers pay per running hour, is not so easily applicable, but it is a direction that is being considered. As in society, ownership is not always important anymore, but sharing and paying for use is. Companies dealing with seasonal peaks, for instance, benefit much more from a flexible solution. Another reason to opt for rent or lease, for example, is that it is difficult for many companies to know how things will be in two years' time. The world changes so quickly." Incidentally, De Groot does not expect the forklift truck to look completely different in five or 10 years' time. "The product has pretty much run out of steam. In terms of energy, there will still be major changes, such as the further emergence of lithium-ion and hydrogen, for example. In addition, on-board computers are getting smarter and smarter, and more safety products are coming." He sees a trend like the self-driving forklift, but limited. "A lot of that kind of technology has been around for a long time, from before the crisis even. It will depend on economic development whether and how fast this continues."
Slow
René de Koster, professor of Logistics and Operations Management at Erasmus University, thinks the forklift will certainly not become obsolete in the future. "Automation is increasing, but the number of warehouses with an autonomous, self-propelled forklift is now very small. There are an estimated fifty thousand warehouses. The vast majority of them have forklifts running around and they are not suddenly replaced by anything else. The role of the forklift is really not going to change in the next 20 years."
On top of that, according to the professor, it is difficult to automate the lifting function. "It can already be done, but it is fairly slow. Regarding horizontal transport with agv's, a lot is possible, but in many warehouses it is difficult to separate the two functions. If you could separate the flows, it becomes a lot easier." In his view, therefore, the function of the forklift remains the same. "There are a few thousand large warehouses of more than ten thousand square metres. If twenty or thirty of them switch to agv's and other automation solutions every year, we will be many years away. And for the bulk of warehouses, it doesn't pay off."
Labour market at Logistica
This article is a contribution from evofenedex. During the Logistica and ICT & Logistiek trade fairs, evofenedex will highlight the Labour Market theme in several content sessions. Want to future-proof your company's personnel policy and logistics process? Visit Logistica and ICT & Logistiek from 5 to 7 November.
