As the holidays approach, it's time to take stock of 2014 and quietly reflect on what did and didn't go well this year. Or yet not, because it is precisely at the end of the year that many logistics chains are put to the test. There is, of course, the Sinterklaas and Christmas rush at online shops, which causes problems every year. People who have ordered a Saint Nicholas present from HEMA may have to turn it into a Christmas present.
Time and again, it turns out that all good or bad in a chain starts with demand forecasting. Prediction usually comes down to generating a few meaningful numbers based on a huge amount of information. This increasingly involves the use of Advanced Planning & Scheduling systems. But as always with APS systems, the final model will have to be fed with the knowledge of the planners within the company. Because, which source should be chosen for the demand forecast: last year's demand, this year's sales, or competitors' sales? Or can forecasts from suppliers be used? In short, as with other planning levels, in Demand Planning a good planner is worth his weight in gold.
Of course, there are also companies that actually take it easy around Christmas, and that's a great opportunity to take installations into maintenance. Shutting down part of the machinery is logistically quite a tricky puzzle, because how long can the installation be under maintenance, which other parts of the installation can best be included immediately as a result, or not so as not to come to a complete standstill? At the same time, there is an increasing focus on maintenance costs, and because maintenance is outsourced in some cases, there is less flexibility to start a day later or earlier at the last minute. So a matter of accurate planning, and there too APS systems have great added value. I know of an APS for Scheduling that has saved a large company millions in maintenance costs over the years, at an investment that could be written in six figures. In what way? By scheduling the entire production chain in detail, and incorporating weekday maintenance into that. And labour hours are much cheaper during the week than on weekends. But even when the crisis hit, a good APS for Master Planning allowed companies to determine exactly how to reduce capacity. So for Saint Nicholas - or for Christmas - ask for an APS as a gift! Happy holidays!
Vincent Wiers - Expert Planning & Scheduling
