Transport sector grows faster in 2016 than in 2017

Total freight transport will grow by 2.5 per cent in 2016. That is what research bureau Panteia predicts in its Short Term Forecaster (KTV). Inland shipping in particular is on the rise in the coming year. There, growth of 3.2 per cent is expected. For 2017, the picture is more moderate.

Last week it was announced that freight transport has grown substantially over the past 10 years. This growth will continue in 2016 as well. Panteia forecasts that road transport will grow by 2.3 per cent. The growth rate is thus lower than that of inland navigation, but in absolute volume terms road transport will grow faster in 2016 and 2017. For the whole of 2016, growth is expected especially in the Chemicals and Energy product groups. Of all modalities, road transport is expected to show the highest growth in 2017, both in growth rate and volume growth.

Delays at Belgium
Traffic jams at Antwerp and border controls - both due to the influx of refugees and terrorism in Europe - are delaying road transport in Belgium. The introduction of Belgian tolls since April 2016 makes road transport in Belgium less attractive. This development means a small strengthening of the Netherlands' trade position vis-à-vis Antwerp, according to Panteia.

Rail transport, no major growth expected
Rail transport growth comes in at 1.7 per cent in 2016. Rail transport indicators looked good in the first quarter of 2016. Rail transport grew more than expected at the end of 2015. This was partly due to low water levels on the Rhine, which caused cargo to shift from inland shipping to rail transport. Such a development is not yet foreseen for 2016, which is why Panteia is not adjusting the forecast for rail transport upwards. The outlook for 2016 for domestic rail transport is better than that for inland shipping.

For 2017, the economic picture is more moderate. Domestic purchasing power and investments are expected to decline. Nevertheless, growth in international and domestic volume is expected. For the full year, Panteia expects 1.4 per cent growth in volume.

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