Suppliers of trucks and trailers are facing a peak in their sales in 2018, yet a step backwards will follow in 2019. Less needs to be replaced by then, more and more foreign trucks are driving on Dutch soil and distributors will start to postpone some of their investments.
This is according to ING Economic Bureau's new asset outlook trucks and trailers. In 2018, according to ING, truck sales will increase by 4 per cent to 15,500 trucks. This is sharply higher than the long-term average of 12,700 and the highest point in a decade. Trailer sales even reach a record level in 2018 at 16,500 (+5 per cent). In 2019, the tide is turning. Lower sales are then forecast in both markets.
Foreign trucks
For trailers, this decline is due to the decrease in replacement investments. For trucks, the decline has several causes. First of all, there is the increase of foreign trucks on Dutch roads. This causes a limited increase in the use of Dutch vehicles. Vehicles are also used more efficiently with the help of ICT and cargo platforms. Despite the well-functioning economy, this reduces the need to expand the Dutch truck fleet.
Postponing investments
In addition, the broad introduction of heavy electric trucks is expected to delay investment, with electric truck sales really starting to grow after 2020, ING expects. In anticipation of that broad introduction, it will first lead to the postponement of investments. "We are on the eve of introduction of electric trucks," explains Michiel Bremmers, asset manager trucks and trailers ING Lease. As more brands enter the market in the next five years, prices start to fall and CO2 emissions move higher up the agenda, this will become more interesting for transporters in the city and region."
