The national and international economy are doing well and that has a positive effect on the volume of freight transport. Road transport in particular has a lot of growth in the coming years, although the pace of growth will slow down slightly in 2019.
This is according to Panteia's Short Term Forecaster (KTV). The research firm expects total goods transport to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2018. In 2019, the economy's growth rate is expected to slow down, affecting the transport sector. Although growth of 2.3 per cent is still forecast for 2019.
Inland shipping feels the energy transition
Growth differs per modality, according to Panteia. The prognosis for inland shipping, for instance, is mixed, with a decrease in transported volume expected in the Energy subgroup. Especially the transport of coal to Germany decreases due to the energy transition in the country. In the other subgroups, things look better. As a result, the overall forecast for inland navigation comes to an increase, 0.6 per cent growth in 2018 and 0.3 per cent in 2019.
Growth in road transport
Road transport is less negatively affected by the energy transition in Germany. Growth of 3.8 per cent is expected for road transport in 2018. In 2019, that growth decreases to 2.7 per cent.
Challenges for road transport companies
In the short term, there are a number of challenges for road transport companies, predicts Panteia. In all likelihood, oil prices will remain high in the coming period. In addition, there are plans to accelerate the introduction of kilometre charges for trucks and in Germany tolls will go up in 2019. Labour market developments will also play an increasingly important role. For instance, the capacity problem caused by the shortage of drivers will persist.
Rail freight on political agenda
Rail freight transport will grow by 2.8 per cent in 2018, according to Panteia. In 2019, growth will be 2.1 per cent. Rail user fees are going down in 2019 in both Germany and the Netherlands. There are also initiatives to boost rail transport in the medium term, such as explorations to operate internationally with long trains (740m).
