The damage suffered by the transport and logistics sector in recent months due to the corona crisis seems to be not too bad for the time being. Still, a full recovery remains out until 2022. Although growth is forecast to resume next year.
So says ABN AMRO in a new sector forecast. According to the bank, the number of companies that recorded at least 20 per cent lower sales from March to July is likely to be limited. It seems that many companies overestimated the damage or applied for NOW support as a precautionary measure. For 2020, ABN AMRO expects volumes to contract by 5.5 per cent. Falling demand is putting pressure on prices in most segments, which will further reduce sales. Growth of 2.5 per cent is forecast for 2021. By 2022, the sector will be back to its previous level.
Inland shipping and road transport hit later
Most countries in Europe are being hit harder by the corona crisis than the Netherlands. As a result, international transport in particular is under pressure, such as maritime (-9 per cent), rail (-10 per cent) and air freight (-10 per cent). So far, inland shipping and road transport have suffered relatively little from the crisis. However, due to the nitrogen crisis, they are likely to face lower construction output later this year, which will reduce transport volumes. Only mail carriers and couriers (+5 per cent) saw their volumes grow, partly because many consumers avoided the shopping streets. The parcel market, for instance, experienced a huge spike due to online shopping by consumers.
European subsidies to make sector more sustainable
Over time, the outlook is favourable and recovery is on the horizon, ABN AMRO says. There are also opportunities to make the sector more sustainable. European regulations can act as a flywheel in this respect. Last month, for instance, the European Council expressed its ambition to introduce stricter legislation for shipping and aviation. Moreover, the European Union is making available an emergency fund worth €750 billion to stimulate the economy and realise its climate ambitions.
"The agreement agreed that 30 per cent of this amount should be spent on 'climate action'. This means, among other things, that transport companies must eventually use cleaner fuels and invest in cleaner ships and aircraft," says Albert Jan Swart, Sector Economist Transport and Logistics at ABN AMRO. "To make this possible, subsidies are likely to become available for transport companies, both in maritime and aviation as well as in road transport and inland navigation. The package thus provides a strong financial incentive to invest in the development of more sustainable means of transport. Thus, making the transport sector more sustainable can gain momentum."
