The logistics sector has started the way up again. Due to the corona crisis, there was a contraction of -4 per cent in 2020, but growth is on the horizon this year. ABN AMRO forecasts growth of 2.5 per cent.
Logistics chains will remain disrupted for the time being, the bank concludes in its Transport & Logistics Sector Forecast. Part of the sector is also struggling with the consequences of the closure of the event industry, the hospitality industry and shops. Nevertheless, there is strong recovery in international trade and industrial production.
Recovery in road transport, inland shipping and air freight
Much of the sector has already returned to pre-crisis levels, with road transport movements, for example, largely back to their old levels. Load factors are lower, though, as catering and non-essential shops are being supplied sparsely. On the other hand, there is additional demand for transport services from supermarkets, online shops and parcel delivery companies. The recovery of the industry is also generating higher volumes. After a contraction (-1 per cent) in 2020, growth of 1 per cent is expected this year.
Inland shipping recovered in the fourth quarter and could grow by 1 per cent in 2021, according to ABN AMRO. Sea and coastal shipping recovered after a sharp contraction (-7.5 per cent), partly due to strong demand for container capacity. This year, growth of 4 per cent is expected.
Air cargo is also on the rise (+7 per cent) in 2021 after a poor year (-6.2 per cent). Air freight is in high demand, as supply chains have been disrupted and many companies want to transport goods with urgency. Rates are high because the number of passenger flights is much lower than before the pandemic and they previously took about half of all air cargo. ABN AMRO suspects that this situation could normalise from the summer when these flights increase again.
Brexit and nitrogen crisis
A recovery for the transport sector will take effect from the summer, the sector forecast says. At the same time, the bank warns of new challenges. "Now, companies involved in logistics around events, non-essential shops and the hospitality industry are still suffering from the lockdown. These sectors are expected to be able to reopen in the summer, if enough people have been vaccinated," says Albert Jan Swart, Sector Economist Transport & Logistics at ABN AMRO.
"At the same time, the sector is facing the consequences of the nitrogen crisis. For instance, construction output is decreasing by 3.5 per cent in 2021, which means less construction materials are needed. This inhibits the recovery in inland waterways and road transport. Moreover, the structural consequences of brexit are emerging. Customs checks are causing delays at the border and that confesses to significant loss of turnover for some companies, for example because trailers and trucks cannot be used efficiently."
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