The transport sector is hit hard by the corona crisis. In the best possible scenario, volumes fall by 5 to 11 per cent. When recovery occurs is still uncertain, research firm Panteia argues.
Bureau Panteia was commissioned by the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy to study the impact of COVID-19 on freight transport and transhipment in Dutch seaports. In doing so, it relied on the economic expectations in the Central Economic Plan and corona scenarios outlined by the CPB. These are two scenarios: a three-month crisis (COVID1) and a 12-month crisis (COVID4).
COVID1: recovery from 2020 onwards
In the first scenario - assuming a three-month crisis - transported cargo for all modes decreases in 2020. Seaports are hit hardest with an 11 per cent decline. For road, rail and inland navigation, the decrease this year is 4 to 5 per cent, with none of the modalities returning to 2019 levels in terms of transported weight in 2021.
Panteia expects recovery to vary by modality. For transhipment, recovery will occur in the third quarter of 2020. Road transport and inland navigation will have to wait another quarter.
COVID4: recovery remains off for now
In the COVID4 scenario - when the crisis lasts 12 months - the cargo weight transported for all modes declines much more sharply in 2020 than the COVID1 scenario. Again, seaport transhipments are expected to be hit hardest, with an 18 per cent decrease in 2020. For road, rail and inland waterways, the decline is 8 to 10 per cent in 2020. In 2021, no recovery is expected and the volume transported decreases even further.
In the COVID4 scenario, the least transport is carried in the second quarter of 2020. After this quarter, the weight transported stabilises and even increases again for some modes, which can be linked to seasonal trends. In 2021, a decrease is to be expected again, albeit smaller than in 2020. For transhipments in seaports and road transport, the expected level in 2021 is even below the low point of the 2009-2012 credit crisis. For inland navigation and rail, this decline is less significant.
Long-term consequences
The study does not yet explore the consequences after 2021. In autumn, the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy will present a future picture of freight transport up to and including 2025.
