Dutch transport companies will be hit hard by possible new foreign lockdown measures. This is because turnover in the sector is heavily dependent on global export demand.
This is according to research by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and Statistics Netherlands. Unlike the Dutch service sector, which is mainly affected by domestic measures, transport companies and manufacturing are actually hit by measures in other countries and downturns in global trade. New lockdowns abroad therefore have a major economic impact on these sectors.
The exact extent of the decline in global trade caused by a second wave remains unclear. This depends, amongst other things,
on the duration of the lockdown measures implemented in other countries. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is forecasting a decline of between 8 and 20 per cent, assuming a lockdown lasting between 3 and 12 months.
CPB has provided insight into the impact of these lockdown scenarios for each sector:
Different companies than during first wave
“A sharp fall in export demand resulting from a second global wave of Covid-19 and the associated
measures will hit Dutch export companies hard”, concludes the CPB. “However, these will be different companies from those
were affected by the domestic lockdown during the first wave of the pandemic.”
According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, much attention has so far been paid to businesses and organisations that have suffered severely as a result of domestic measures, such as hospitality businesses and cultural institutions. “What has been overlooked, however, is the impact that measures abroad have had on
Dutch companies. The companies hardest hit by a fall in demand abroad are facing
particular in the manufacturing and transport sectors. These companies remain vulnerable to new measures
abroad.”
Support needed
In the long term, these companies could be undermined, warns the CPB. If companies in industry and transport go under, the knock-on effect could be significant, as they are embedded in a network of Dutch suppliers and
customers. “In the event of a second wave, measures may therefore be needed
to provide support to companies that continue to suffer from a prolonged downturn
in global export demand,” the agency concludes.
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