Logistics real estate parties are going to invest heavily in square metres in the coming year. Together, they want to build over four million square metres of logistics real estate. That means an increase of 15 per cent on the total logistics stock in the Netherlands.
Overheating at logistics hotspots
Stec Group's survey of the twenty largest logistics property parties shows that the majority of them rate the current market as 'good/excellent'. Some 35 per cent of the parties think the market is starting to get overheated. Yet this does not affect the respondents' building plans.
"Especially in the hotspots of West Brabant, Tilburg and Venlo, there is overheating," notes Hub Ploem of Stec Groep. "Despite the signs of an overheated market, real estate parties have significant new construction plans, with the traditional hotspots being the most popular. However, scarcity of land and employee shortages are leading to places north and south of the hotspots being considered such as central and eastern Netherlands."
In time, more smaller distribution centres near cities
Not surprisingly, 75 per cent of the real estate parties expect a dominance of XXL distribution centres in the coming years; a continuation of the existing dynamics. What is striking, however, is that these parties expect XXL warehouses to be less dominant in the medium term. 30 per cent expect growth mainly in small and medium-sized DCs close to consumers. Ploem: "We do not expect XXL to be on its way out. There will also be a demand for XXL DCs in the longer term, partly due to consolidations, e-fulfilment and efficiency benefits. But growth in the B2C segment is also fuelling another property type; small-scale fulfilment centres, sorting hubs and return centres close to the city."
Brownfields versus greenfields
A majority (75 per cent) of the real estate parties expect more obsolete DCs to become vacant as a result of the current construction boom. However, this will not lead to an oversupply. Some of these vacant properties will soon be refilled by new users. What is also foreseen is that the scarcity of land in logistics hotspots will lead to brownfields (existing already built-up business locations) becoming more attractive as building locations. For over 70 per cent of real estate parties, these are at least as commercially attractive investments compared to greenfields. The connection of supply and demand for suitable sites is a point of attention in this respect.
