The transport sector is being hit hard by the corona crisis, with 633 transport companies falling over in the Netherlands next year. That is as much as 1 per cent of the entire industry, according to an estimate by business data specialist Altares Dun & Bradstreet.
Altares Dun & Bradstreet used historical data to examine the relationship between gross domestic product and the number of bankruptcies. Looking at current economic trends, the data specialist expects that not the hospitality industry, but the construction and transport sectors will be hit hardest by the corona crisis. The risk of going bankrupt in these industries is three times higher than before the COVID-19 outbreak.
Transport sector relatively hardest hit
The report states that 1,760 construction companies will fail. In the transport sector, the figure is 633 companies. Relatively speaking, the transport sector suffers the most pain; as much as 1 per cent of the industry goes bankrupt. Of all companies in the Netherlands, 0.37 per cent will not survive the crisis. That's a total of 11,069 bankruptcies.
No horror scenario
The bankruptcy wave will start in the fourth quarter of 2020 and last until the fourth quarter of 2021, Altares Dun & Bradstreet expects. Despite the gloomy outlook, there is no horror scenario as yet, the data specialist argues. "The abrupt increase in business risk is very similar in speed and magnitude to what took place in 2008-2009. That was quite a difficult period, but in the end the economy showed its resilience and recovered well afterwards." A possible second corona wave has not been considered in the estimate.
