Due to an upturn in international trade, total freight transport will grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018. Especially by road, more volume will be transported. This is stated by research agency Panteia in the 32nd edition of the Short Term Forecaster.
In 2016, economic growth already saw an increase in transported volume. For 2017, a 1.6 per cent growth is expected for transport by road, inland navigation and rail. Purchasing power is expected to rise less in 2017 and 2018, but international trade is reviving. Panteia speaks of a 'favourable' global economic outlook, with Brazil and Russia, for instance, expecting economic growth again after years of contraction. This has its impact on freight transport.
Road transport biggest grower
In 2017, road transport is expected to grow by 1.9 per cent in volume transported, while for 2018 it is 2.2 per cent. With this, the volume transported by road transport grows the most of all modes. For 2017, road transport of construction materials is expected to grow by 1.5 per cent. This is the highest forecast for this transport since 2007. The transport of oil products will also increase, according to Panteia's forecast. About a third of the growth can be attributed to higher fuel demand domestically. Traffic and transport have increased over the past year, leading to more fuel consumption.
Barriers in inland navigation
Inland shipping can expect 1.1 per cent more transported volume in 2017. The first months of this year saw low volumes transported, due to low water levels on the Rhine and a very poor harvest of agricultural products in Western Europe. In 2018, 1.9 per cent volume growth and fewer obstacles are expected in inland shipping. Panteia expects more growth in the transport of agricultural products, secondary waste, chemicals and containers.
Developments on the way in rail transport
In rail transport, Panteia expects 0.7 per cent more transported volume in 2017. Of all modes, this is the lowest growth, both in growth rate and absolute volume. In the Netherlands, economic growth is expected to be above the eurozone average. This affects the volumes ultimately to be transported. Rail transport is very international in nature, so the expected growth of rail transport is lower than the expected growth of road transport, with 1.6 per cent growth forecast in 2018.
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