The transport sector's growth next year will be lower than in 2019. The sector will grow by 1.5 per cent in 2019, flattening to 0.5 per cent in 2020, ABN Amro predicts.
In its annual Sector Forecast, ABN Amro states that the sector suffers from the flattening growth of the Dutch economy. In addition, companies in transport and logistics are likely to suffer from the contraction in construction, caused by regulations around nitrogen and PFAS.
World trade growth declines
The sector started well this year, but saw volumes level off in the summer of 2019. This is mainly due to stagnation in global trade. On an open economy like that of the Netherlands, that development has a lot of impact. Dutch GDP growth is 0.9 per cent in 2020, down from 1.7 per cent in 2019, and ABN AMRO expects world trade growth to recover slightly to 1 per cent in 2020. The container market and air cargo may benefit from this in 2021.
Impact of environmental measures
According to ABN Amro, the transport sector will be hit twice in 2020. Simultaneously with the flattening economic growth, companies are facing environmental measures. Many construction projects are on hold due to the nitrogen and PFAS crisis, leading to a decrease in demand for transport of raw materials and building materials.
Construction generally moves late-cyclically as construction projects have a long lead time. The transport sector normally moves early-cyclically. That is, the transport sector feels the effects of flattening economic growth almost immediately. Inland shipping in particular is dependent on the construction sector. Raw materials and construction materials account for about 40 per cent of freight volume in that industry. The ultimate impact on the sector is still unclear; the Remkes advisory committee will come up with recommendations to reduce nitrogen emissions from the entire transport sector in May 2020.
