The transport and logistics sector will also realise growth in 2018. ING expects growth of 3.5 per cent and an increase in turnover of 5 per cent. "With costs rising faster than rates, companies will nevertheless have to become more efficient and productive to take full advantage of this," the bank said.
Volume growth is strong across almost the board: 3.5 per cent, the same rate as in 2017. In doing so, revenue is expected to increase by 5 per cent on average. However, costs are also expected to rise harder in 2018, by 2 per cent to 5 per cent, due to higher wages and fuel costs. ING: "As full pass-through remains difficult for companies, cost control and productivity improvements per employee are important to benefit financially from the squeeze as well."
Favourable business climate
On transport demand, the transport and logistics sector has nothing to complain about. After a strong 2017 with volume growth of 3.5 per cent, the assessment of the business climate has reached the highest point since the crisis. Domestically, the construction, retail and hospitality sectors in particular are generating additional transport demand. Internationally, logistics service providers are benefiting from the rebounding European economy, which is having a positive impact on clients in industry and wholesale.
Logistics service providers continue to grow in 2018, but at the same time growing e-commerce is causing revenue leakage to parcel carriers and large online retailers such as Coolblue, Zalando and Amazon. Due to the commercial importance of speed and reliability, logistics is increasingly becoming a (strategic) priority here. Cargo platforms are also gaining a foothold in the market. This forces steps to be taken in ICT utilisation and intensive customer relations.
Challenge: attracting staff
A key challenge for success in 2018 is recruiting staff. Half of freight transport companies are already facing a shortage of drivers and logistics staff. This challenge is particularly prevalent in road transport, logistics and public transport, but also in inland shipping. In warehousing, many additional employees are currently needed, but ING expects that many of these jobs will disappear within a decade due to increasing robotisation.
Efficiency drive
As higher rates realise transport and logistics companies do not succeed enough, it is mainly about making strokes in efficiency. This goes hand in hand with increasing intelligence supported by data and ICT, which, for example, ensures higher occupancy and load factors. Given rising wages, it is important that the increasing crowding will also start to pay off in higher price levels this year. Many companies are yearning for profitable growth.
