Transport and logistics entrepreneurs will remain busy in 2019 too, although growth is slowing down a little. On average, volume will increase by 2 per cent next year. Meanwhile, costs also continue to rise.
This is according to the ING Economics Bureau's forecast. In 2018, volume grew by 3 per cent. That growth will continue next year, albeit to a lesser extent. Although transport demand is decreasing, it will certainly remain busy in logistics services, road transport and parcel transport in 2019.
Brake on European trade
Domestically, demand comes mainly from the construction, retail and hospitality sectors, and the ING Economics Bureau expects global trade to continue to grow. Among European customers, such growth is less exuberant. Shippers from export-oriented industry and wholesale are going to see that reflected in their figures.
The Brexit offers both threats and opportunities for the sector. A decline in trade from the UK is predicted. New regulations increase the administrative burden. Yet, the UK's departure from the EU may actually bring additional revenue to the logistics sector, due to their expertise in customs services and warehousing.
Business confidence drops
Enthusiasm about the future is waning somewhat. Business confidence peaked in 2018. At the end of the year, entrepreneurs are more critical about the laborious passing on of rising costs. This mainly involves higher wage and fuel costs.
That falling confidence is not out of the blue. Due to the sharp rise in costs, profits were lower. More work was done at a lower margin. That led out eventually to a growing number of bankruptcies in 2018. Road hauliers, parcel delivery companies and freight forwarders were particularly affected by low margins.
Expected wage growth in 2019
That it will be financially watchful again in 2019 is evident from ING's forecast. Next year, labour costs will rise further. No further increase is expected for fuel costs. ING advises companies to focus on cost control and productivity savings per employee, asset or square metre. Labour market developments are expected to accelerate the automation wave, although workers will not yet be massively replaced by robots.
